Drawing on over 20 years in consulting and a master's in business, I have seen firsthand how projections and realities often diverge in the housing sector—especially in markets like Greater Vancouver. The national housing agency now estimates that to restore pre-pandemic affordability, Canada will need between 417,000 and 469,000 new homes annually until 2036. Yet, current construction forecasts fall significantly short, with a persistent supply gap of 187,000 to 238,000 homes each year over the next decade. The anticipated slowdown in construction, outpacing demand, poses a substantial challenge to achieving affordability targets. With most of today's building focused on existing projects, bridging this gap would require a dramatic increase in new developments. Ultimately, to make meaningful progress on affordability, Canada must double its current housing construction outlook for the next ten years.
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