Author: Shahin Shahlaee

Looking ahead to 2027, housing in Canada may be entering a new phase. According to CMHC, we should see gradual improvements as incomes and economic growth gain momentum. While sales are projected to pick up, activity is still likely to remain somewhat lower than what we witnessed in the previous decade. The Canadian Real Estate Association is forecasting only modest national price growth, which points more to stabilization than another dramatic surge. In some markets, we could continue to see higher inventory and softer demand, which means buyers may find themselves with a bit more negotiating room. Drawing on my two decades of consulting experience and a business background, I find these indicators valuable in understanding the fluctuating dynamics of Greater Vancouver’s housing market.

Drawing on over 20 years of consulting and a business master's degree, I always pay close attention to the nuanced shifts in the Canadian housing market. Recently, we've seen some early signs of positive momentum—resales improving, inventory leveling out, and prices beginning to stabilize. These changes reflect how affordability and employment trends are gradually restoring a sense of confidence among buyers. Many who had paused their search are now in stronger financial positions, with better savings and employment prospects—an encouraging sign for the market’s resilience. However, the outlook for 2026 is measured: forecasts indicate resales may dip by about 4% to approximately 453,000 units, and benchmark prices could ease by around 2% to $794,000. Modest gains are anticipated to return in 2027, with borrowing costs hovering near their lows and the central bank expected to maintain current rates. Of course, we must keep in mind that trade tensions and potential energy shocks remain risks to the pace of recovery. While 2027 is expected to bring rising resales and prices across all provinces, the recovery is likely to be uneven rather than dramatic. This kind of careful, data-driven perspective is essential for anyone navigating today’s real estate market in Greater Vancouver or beyond.

With over 20 years of consulting experience and a master's in business, I pay close attention to the shifts in our economic landscape—especially when they touch the housing market in Greater Vancouver. The Bank of Canada has just maintained its key rate at 2.25%, pointing to ongoing economic recovery and the need to stay alert to inflation risks. Notably, Canada’s GDP saw a 3.3% increase in Q2, and unemployment dipped to 6.4% in July. The next rate review is coming up on October 28, 2026, when the Bank will reevaluate inflation and broader economic conditions. I find that understanding these developments is key for making informed decisions in our market.

Drawing from over two decades of consulting and my background in business analysis, I pay close attention to the impact of development fees on the Canadian housing market—especially in dynamic cities like Vancouver. Recent findings from our national housing agency reveal that reducing these fees could make about 14% more residential projects viable nationwide. The effect is even more pronounced in Toronto and Vancouver: eliminating charges could boost project viability by around 10%, and in Toronto, this could account for half the city’s stated housing supply needs. Notably, Calgary’s fees on new homes are much lower—ranging from roughly $4,000 for a one-bedroom high-rise to $9,000 for detached homes, compared to Vancouver’s $20,000 to $33,000 for similar units. While these fees are essential for funding infrastructure like roads and administration, the optimal balance isn’t zero. Strategic fee reductions—especially on family-sized homes—could help new developments compete in Canada’s priciest markets, where larger units often outprice comparable resale options and present challenges for families seeking space.