Author: Shahin Shahlaee

Falling mortgage rates are improving affordability and encouraging more Canadians to resume postponed home-buying plans.
Household formation remains resilient despite slower national population growth this year.
More first-time buyers are expected to support activity across the broader resale market.
Market confidence is forecast to improve gradually through late 2026.

A provincial leader proposed taxing unsold BC condos left empty for >1 yr, arguing the move would improve affordability if the party returned to power.
The proposed levy would have started near ~2% and climbed ~1% yearly for continued vacancies, with the campaign saying it could unlock ~5K condos.
A data firm estimated thousands of unsold, empty new units across Metro Vancouver were worth $4.4B, a figure used to support the affordability case.
Reaction was mixed: one expert questioned whether the measure would change behavior or raise revenue, while an industry economist warned about financially stressed developers.
The same platform also proposed raising BC's speculation and vacancy tax to ~2% for domestic owners and ~5% for foreign owners in eligible areas.

In BC, the affordability debate centered on home prices, but incomes also mattered when judging whether homeownership was realistically within reach for buyers.
BC's provincial government proposed taxing newly completed condos left vacant and unsold, aiming to move standing inventory and encourage lower pricing for buyers.
The BC market was already correcting, while slow sales, minimal presales, and high construction and financing costs left developers needing inventory to move.
In BC, Real Estate and construction directly accounted for ~28% of GDP, and construction alone supported >190K jobs, tying affordability closely to incomes.
The broader BC takeaway: keep addressing housing cost and supply, while also strengthening incomes through investment, productivity, job creation, and a more diversified economy.

Earlier this year, Canada’s ownership-cost burden reached ~53% of median household income by Late-Q2, improving by ~0.5 points from Late-Q1 nationwide, a slight easing.
Ownership costs stayed mostly stable through Late-Q2, showing affordability improved only modestly and suggesting the national shift came from steady pricing, not a rapid reset.
Within Canada, Vancouver and Toronto led housing-cost declines, while Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg posted modest price gains, showing affordability shifts varied by market.
Calgary and Edmonton were largely flat quarterly, with slight cost easing, yet both stayed above long-term affordability norms, underscoring lingering pressure for local buyers.
Edmonton remained among Canada’s most affordable major markets, but even there buyers faced affordability hurdles that could keep some from entering the market.

Canadian borrowers could continue facing affordability pressure as borrowing costs remain elevated and economic uncertainty shapes the housing market.
Rate relief could improve affordability, but its impact will depend on inflation, economic conditions, and the Bank of Canada’s policy path.
Buyers may remain cautious, while higher financing costs continue influencing purchasing power, refinancing decisions, and overall housing demand.
For borrowers and investors, planning around current financing conditions remains important rather than relying entirely on future rate declines.